I never dreamed I would pay more for gas per month than I spend on a house payment, but I do.  I realize the Economy is slow and effecting many people as well as organizations, and I don't ask this in meaness.  Just curious, as to what others notice.

What change have you seen because the slow economy?

 

                          **********************************************************

                                   Hewes Redfisher 18    "Sar Castic" 

                        No sponsors Please  

                                                 If you have a great business or product I will endorse your business or product at no expense.

                           ~         "Somewhere in shallow water looking for a fish to trick"         ~

                 ***********************************************************

Offshore Fishing Team  ~  "Wake Me Up, If I Get A Bite"

Grady White 20 Overnighter

225 Ocean Pro

named: Head Turner

Cuz (8/6/2008)

---

It has killed fishing for the wife and myself.  Last year we fished approx. 70 days, this year around a dozen.  Mainly fuel, not only for the boat but for the cost to drive to work and such.  Sucks big time.  Also the economy considering the rise in food, now utilities will increase 11%.  Also myself being a State of Florida employee which we have not had a pay increase in 2 years and don't have one planed for the next two really puts things in the deep, if you know where I'm coming from!.

Well, Cuz, all those points in the beginning of your post have hurt us all in one way or another, but you seemed to emphasize the point that you haven't received a raise in your state job in 2 years? I was laid off back in the beginning of April and I have been applying for state jobs since in hopes that I get accepted for one of them! Any job is better than sitting on your duff waiting for an email or a phone call to come in for an interview!!

I have worked hard since age 15 and this is the very first time that I have had to rely on unemployment to get by! I don't want to retire but every job that I apply for ends up the same way, "You are just overqualified for the position at this time."!! I am overqualified?? Hell, I want to work! And I have the proper background for many of the jobs that I have applied for and am willing to learn whatever I need to do any job that is not up my alley so to speak. I am not in any way being demanding on how much pay I am "worth", I will take most any state job that is within my physical capabilities. I have worked outdoors and am knowledgeable of how to point out to people the ecosystems and the flora and fauna of an area and have given talks to all sorts of small and large groups on such items of interest. I am skilled at basic remodeling and can plumb and wire and add a room or build a deck or tear down a wall and make a room larger. I can weld and do minor engine repair and maintenance. I have more skills by accident that many guys have on purpose and I can't seem to find a job that will take me off the unemployed rosters! But I haven't even been in the running for 3 different jobs with the state here locally for a park ranger, a job that I would dearly love to get into and would bust my ass to do the best that I could once there!! They tell me that 2 of the openings were of "entry" level and the third was an improvement on an existing position and they had 3 rangers apply for that increase and had priority for the position! Fine and good, what about the lower position that is left open by the promotion??

It is my contention that, with the economy going in the general direction that it is going, the only really safe jobs will eventually be either in State or Federal positions, raises or not!! So don't be too quick to bitch about not getting a raise in 2 years, at least you still have a job that you can pretty well count on being there tomorrow!

And don't take what I said personally, I just had to get some of the frustration off my chest!

 

Not so.  I am in a federal position and I am slated for BRAC.  Base Re-alignment and Closure.  My job is slated to go away within the year.  Federal jobs are not the nice cushy job that you can stay in and retire in anymore. 

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Jon

And don't take what I said personally, I just had to get some of the frustration off my chest![/quote]"

Well I do understand where you are at but let me give you some insight on how the State system works.

I have work my same job for 28 YEARS!  I am a Sr. Utility Plant Supervisor and make less than $50 grand a year.  I am what is considered an at will employee along with everyone else in the state system.  It is no longer a civil service job as you think.  The state of Florida is the lowest paid system of all 50 States.  The state is laying off people as I type.  I start my workers off at $10 buck an hour as a Jr. Operator.  Hell you can start at Wally world for that, so If I were you, I wouldn't look for a state postion because it's not what you think it is.  Believe me I Know!

______________________________________

Grady White 20 Overnighter

225 Ocean Pro

named: Head Turner

Tom... Sorry to hear you lost your job. I tried for YEARS and YEARS and YEARS to get on with the city or state... doing anything. I had 10 1/2 years vested and tried very hard to get back in to continue it... and even in Santa Rosa Co... but was never called. I bet you I applied for at least 15 -20 positions there... that I more than qualified for. What I don't understand is... if you have a person who is willing to work harder... so they can get their foot in the door... and they ARE "over" qualified... why NOT hire them??? They will end up working their butts off so they can move up the ladder. I guess they feel the "over" qualified will go on to a better paying job when offered elsewhere OR... can it be... they are insecure with hiring someone worthy. I don't understand their reasoning either. I believe... they think it's because "us" older folk just can't do the job. I can work circles around younger people and I never call in sick... but never get called... go figure. I wish you good luck finding something.

_______________________________________________________________________

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~                                                           

FishinFool (8/6/2008)

---

I've switched from Crown Royal at $40/bottle to Canadian Hunter at $20/bottle. 

That Hunter is some good stuff.  I switched several years ago!!!!

______________________________________

Grady White 20 Overnighter

225 Ocean Pro

named: Head Turner

they will bring you down to their level

and beat you with experience.

ya know i heard someone bitch!n the other day about only getting 600.00 stimulas check....whats up with that...heck i was dang glad to get mine cause it paid my fuel bill back and forth to work for several weeks......some people just dont understand.......

as allways with election year the economy does crazy things,after the election(no matter who is president) the economy will get better......there will allways be ups and downs in an economy no matter where your at.....

Pam,

When ya put it in those terms, I feel downright ANCIENT!!! YEARS and YEARS and YEARS????

Man, you aren't THAT old now! I saw some shots of you in your pirate getup and you don't look a day over .......................... 60 to me!!! LOL!! Ha, gotta grab ma' bootie on that one! Just kiddin' ya gal, I sure don't look forward to the first time we actually meet!! You have so many gotchas to get back at me for that I may have to bring a first aid kit with me!!  (FWIW, my first aid kit is a plastic cup, some ice, and a bottle of 101 Turkey!! Takes the pain away just like THAT!!!)(Insert fingersnap smilie)

But I appreciate your concern and the guys who already have state jobs filling me in on the "rest of the story" as Paul Harvey used to say. I still enjoy my fishing but I don't need to worry about gas on that issue so much, I usually drive less than a few miles to put in where I go mostly and my kayak gets such good mileage that I don't even bring up the subject much! I am rigging up a light for my 'yak now for night fishing and also I am trying to rig up a pole anchor but the 1" Schedule 40 that I bought is too large in outside diameter to fit down through my scupper holes. I may still use it as 3/4" seems a bit flimsy to me for a push in the sand shallow water anchor. What do you think?

Anyway, I am spending less, going out less, staying home more, and watching TV and using my computer more than I ever did before all this crap hit the fan so I guess I am no different than anyone else. And regarding those big ski boats and party barges y'all are seeing being towed by those gas hog Hummers, those people used to be our customers at the art gallery where I worked!  They had to cut back on something but they still want to impress their neighbors and their hotsy totsy friends on the weekends so they just quit buying art and put the extra money into gas to power their toys, I guess. So here I sit waiting for that next door to open for me.

Until then, pass the shrimp and the circle hooks, I feel a bite comin' on! 

 

Life & death are set before us,,Choose Life !!

                          **********************************************************

                                   Hewes Redfisher 18    "Sar Castic" 

                        No sponsors Please  

                                                 If you have a great business or product I will endorse your business or product at no expense.

                           ~         "Somewhere in shallow water looking for a fish to trick"         ~

                 ***********************************************************

Offshore Fishing Team  ~  "Wake Me Up, If I Get A Bite"

"Many go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after." - Henry David Thoreau

Cobia 174cc w/90 Yamaha and 15 rodholders.

Rush 9'6" kayak

But among my associates its a different story.  I know several people who are inches away from bankruptcy, most of them due to getting overleveraged in the real estate market around here.  One guy has six places and is drowning - he was counting on price appreciation to make the numbers work and of course you know what's actually happening.  Three to six months more, he's done - its impossible to stop at this point for him.  Unfortunately he didn't take advantage of the year or so back in '05 when you could set up LLCs and get mortgages without a personal guarantee (that window wasn't open for very long) so when he burns everything except his personal residence and tax-deferred retirement is going to go "poof."

Another is not quite in as bad of shape, and MIGHT make it, as he can cashflow what he has.  Maybe.  One bad tenant and he's done too; so far, he's been lucky in that regard.  I give him one chance in three, but at least he has a shot.

The polyannas who think we can manage to "stabilize" the housing market at today's prices are smoking crack.  Until affordability is reached with conventional 30/fixed loans with a full 20% down in cash and with a DTI no more than 36%, and leverage comes down in the average consumer's balance sheet that they can buy at those prices and on those terms, we will not see the bottom.

This is math, not wishes and dreams; the cycle of creating ever more debt on looser and looser terms, based on the ponzi notion that someone will pay you more for a given asset "'cause they ain't making more land" is OVER.

Those of you who believe otherwise are placing your bets on Santa Claus. 

He ain't coming but Barack with a near-certain doubling of capital gains and dividend tax rates almost certainly will be.

The next major "gotcha" areas for the economy are going to be so-called "prime" loans (there was basically no such thing, defined as above over the last four years or thereabouts), commercial R/E, credit cards and autos.  The former is already starting to smell badly, and will take out a LOT of community and regional banks.  I've been analyzing this closely as this is a huge problem for a local economy when the lenders for these projects go T/U.  That's coming, starting essentially now.  I'm tracking the internal delinquency rates across a wide swath of parts of the economic spectrum from CRE to C&I to consumer finance (auto/credit card) and the deterioration in the last quarter alone is stunning.  I believe there will be 500+ bank failures in the next two or three years, and the number could be double that, most of them community and smaller regional banks, but there are some larger ones with exposure concentrations in California and Florida that on a dispassionate analysis are flat broke.  Freddie has (by their own admission) negative net worth, by the way.  That ain't good.

The prime driver for all of these is unemployment and its ramping; this feeds a vicious feedback cycle when you're overleveraged and will burn businesses small and large alike who are dependant on everything from simple trade credit on up.

If you can take down leverage and cashflow what you have with a 3-6 month cushion for adverse conditions you might make it.  If you have no leverage and plenty of cash there will be really good bargains out there in another year or two - but its too early to be bottom fishing.  Way too early.

If you're geared and can't cut it back severely due to the inability to sell down your book to clear the leverage, or if you're committed to finishing projects that rely on completion payments based upon end-customers being able to continue to pay you, Lucifer is staring in your front window.

My "best case" right now is a 80/81-style nasty; I see no way to avoid things getting at least that ugly.  The middle case approaches a 1930s rerun, and you don't want to know what the "aw shit" case is.

The debt bubble will take at least until 2010 to unwind.  Those expecting an '09 economic turn are wrong.  Housing will not turn materially until at least 10, and perhaps into 11/12, depending on how long it takes before people stop screwing around and flush the inventory at a clearing price. 

Right now we still have Countrywide/BAC refusing to short loans unless you are willing to allow them to liquidate your retirement funds as part of the deal.  Forget it kids - 401ks and IRAs are immune from attachment in bankruptcy, so anyone with more than 2 firing neurons tells them to go go screw a goat in response to that one.  Not until that sort of stupidity ends and the 30/fixed, 36% DTI, 20% cash down loan becomes standard again, and prices are affordable under that metric, will the market clear.

Anecdotally, I ate at Harbor Docks yesterday for lunch.  About 1/3rd of all the slips around the harbor are empty; that was new.  The boats are gone.  Toys go first when you get in trouble.....

Investing?  http://tickerforum.org and http://market-ticker.org
Diving?  http://scubaforum.org

nextstep (8/7/2008)

---

... i think there is light at the end of the tunnel.  the question is can we make it to the light.

due to increased energy costs, the light at the end of the tunnel has been tuned off, sorry for the inconvenience

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxxPLDZnqwA&feature=fvst

Anchoring for cobia fishing is like washing your feet with socks on, it doesn't make any damn sense!!!

Angler formerly known as VS200B.

Anglertube member COBIAHUNTER

http://www.forumpictureprocessor.com/gallery.asp?gallery=1630

"Barbeque Is Like Sex, If Its Messy You Know You Are Doing It Right"    

"Give me a Zippo and a Fork and I can grill the World"

nextstep (8/7/2008)

---

this economy is killing me and is worse for my employees.  we went from a 20 person outfit to 8 and future layoffs on the horizon.  i am a land surveyor so our business was directly affected by the mortgage crisis.  other companys have had to close their doors and some companys went down to the surveyor and a helper which hurts the surveyors with employees because we cant compete with their low overhead.  before you think lower survey prices are good, think again.  without the proper staff closing dates get missed which can cost a potential home buyer thousands.  when you call their office you have to leave a message because they are out in the field doing it all.  the research end suffers...etc.  im with bluffman on this one i think there is light at the end of the tunnel.  the question is can we make it to the light.

Thats bad.  I wish you the best of everything.

 

                          **********************************************************

                                   Hewes Redfisher 18    "Sar Castic" 

                        No sponsors Please  

                                                 If you have a great business or product I will endorse your business or product at no expense.

                           ~         "Somewhere in shallow water looking for a fish to trick"         ~

                 ***********************************************************

Offshore Fishing Team  ~  "Wake Me Up, If I Get A Bite"

Fortunately, when you are at the bottom, there is not far to fall.  We are below the median income for our area.  But, as long as my wife and I can keep our jobs, then we are in good shape accross the board.  Excellent fixed rate on the house and very little debt.  I started to dump the boat earlier in the year, but decided to keep it and ride it out.

------------------------------------------------------------------

"Many go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after." - Henry David Thoreau

Cobia 174cc w/90 Yamaha and 15 rodholders.

Rush 9'6" kayak

You are exactly right on your thoughts of the economy.  Money moving makes it all work.  Money stops economy stops.  Great post.

 

                          **********************************************************

                                   Hewes Redfisher 18    "Sar Castic" 

                        No sponsors Please  

                                                 If you have a great business or product I will endorse your business or product at no expense.

                           ~         "Somewhere in shallow water looking for a fish to trick"         ~

                 ***********************************************************

Offshore Fishing Team  ~  "Wake Me Up, If I Get A Bite"

But nobody said it was fun then, and it won't be this time.

If you got yourself overleveraged in terms of debt, find a good bankruptcy attorney now.  You may not need him for a while, but the odds are very high you will need him.

The pollyanna view on this is simply wrong.  Leverage is murderous when you're on the wrong end of it.  People forget this during good times, but boy, do they remember - usually painfully - during the bad.

BTW the nice move up you see today in the market is likely going to last a week or so.  Enjoy it, and use it to raise cash if you're stuck in long positions.  The market will soon figure out that this "credit problem" isn't limited in any way to housing, and when it does.....

If you think that 08 is the bottom of housing, then you should buy Fannie and Freddie stock with both fists here.  You'll make a fortune; they're an easy triple if you're right on that call.  For all of you who think that's reality, but aren't willing to put your money on the table, may I ask "exactly how sure are you"?

I ain't buying one share as I think the bottom on housing nationally won't be seen until early '10 and they're both zeros.

Investing?  http://tickerforum.org and http://market-ticker.org
Diving?  http://scubaforum.org

                          **********************************************************

                                   Hewes Redfisher 18    "Sar Castic" 

                        No sponsors Please  

                                                 If you have a great business or product I will endorse your business or product at no expense.

                           ~         "Somewhere in shallow water looking for a fish to trick"         ~

                 ***********************************************************

Offshore Fishing Team  ~  "Wake Me Up, If I Get A Bite"

 http://www.forumpictureprocessor.com/gallery.asp?gallery=1211                                                                                                                                                              

20' Chapparral Cuddy Walk Around with 200 HP Yamaha  (IRISH WAKE)     Nextel # 154*26*16153

cell # 205-422-9692 work 205-672-2797